Every time gold hits a new high, someone in the comments shouts "It's time for $BTC as a safe haven." Tonight, gold price broke 4,410 again, continuously hitting new highs, but the coin price remains sluggish—this isn't the first time it's slapped you in the face. You need to understand that the current gold rise is driven by inflation and physical shortage; essentially, it's pricing in "even higher interest rates," and this pricing suppresses high-risk assets like crypto rather than benefiting them. Don't just translate war or new gold highs as "crypto is going to rise." First, look at how the 2-year US Treasury is moving, then talk about the word safe haven.

Here's a classic way retail investors die: chasing when prices rise, rushing in when they soar. Tonight, the Korean stock market surged 5% in one day, and the exchange even pulled the sidecar to suspend buy orders. Immediately, someone in the comments shouted, "Jump in quickly, it can still go up." Check the history—whenever there's a need for circuit breakers or sidecars to suspend buy orders, retail investors rushing in at the peak is the largest proportion, and they get trapped the worst. Only after an 8% rise do they think, "Why didn't I get in?" This isn't just missing out; it's your greed hitting exactly where others are taking profits. Holding back is harder than chasing in, but it's worth much more.

Tomorrow night’s CPI, as I always say: this is a coin toss hand, going all in is turning the trade into gambling. When the data heats up, stagflation kills risk assets; when it cools down, they rebound. Every bet you place now isn’t on the market itself but on that yet-to-be-released number. My deepest insight from years of professional card playing is—when the hole cards aren’t revealed, folding isn’t shameful; going all in is just giving money away. Waiting empty-handed for the data to land and the structure to emerge before making a move has a much higher expected value than blindly guessing the direction now. Those who last long in this game are the ones who dare not to bet at critical moments.

The market has been stuck in a range these past two days, unable to go up or down. Many people are itching to act, moving back and forth inside the range, entering and exiting seven or eight times a day. My advice: range-bound oscillation is a meat grinder; even if you get the direction right, repeated stop losses will grind you down into losses. I trust one word in trading—wait. Truly valuable opportunities only come a few times a year; most of the time, the correct action is "do nothing." You might think being out of the market means missing out, but actually, being out is saving your bullets and protecting your mindset from being worn down. Wait for the CPI to give a direction, wait for the range to truly break—that's when you should go heavy. Being diligent amid noise will only make you poorer.

There is an iron rule at the poker table: when information is insufficient, folding is not shameful; going all in is just giving away money. CPI is exactly such a hand—the hole cards haven't been revealed yet, and if you heavily bet on a direction now, it's no different from pushing all your chips on a small pair before the river card. Winning would be luck; losing is inevitable. The difference between a professional player and a gambler is not about daring to bet big, but only betting big when the cards are visible and the odds are favorable. At other times, patiently folding and preserving your chips, waiting for the hand that truly belongs to you. Trading is an endless continuous card game; only those who survive have the right to talk about profits.

Here's a common mistake retail investors love to make: as soon as they see RSI deeply oversold, they rush to "short chase the drop" or flip to "catch the bottom." You have to understand, extreme oversold conditions + bulls just getting liquidated at 9:1 means those clustered short profits are fuel for a short squeeze. What the market loves to do most is, when everyone thinks "it's stable, definitely going down," it suddenly spikes up and buries all the short chasers. Oversold is not a buy signal; it's a warning to "don't run naked here." The real opportunity comes after it picks a direction and breaks out with confirmation. Rushing is the fastest way for retail investors to hand over their chips.

People cannot be educated, only enlightened by divine revelation

Here's a lesson I learned the hard way with real money: no matter how promising a target looks, never treat it as a belief. In all my years of trading, the worst losses weren't from picking the wrong direction, but from placing overly heavy bets on an opportunity I was "too sure" about, and then doubling down as losses mounted. Going all-in on a single asset and a single direction essentially hands over your entire account to a piece of news you can't control. Whether it's $BTC or storage, no matter how clear the fundamentals are, market timing and black swan events are always beyond your calculation. True experts aren't those who dare to go all-in, but those who know when to keep bets small and diversify their bullets. Conviction can be strong, but position sizing must be humble.