Today’s market buzz

July U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000, with May-June revised down by 103,000, initially cutting September hike bets. CME FedWatch now shows ~52% odds of no change and ~48% odds of a 25 bp hike, nearly a coin toss. Today's July CPI is the next test: headline and core CPI are forecast at 0.1% and 0.2% MoM, with annual rates easing from 3.5% to 3.4% and 2.6% to 2.5%. Cooler inflation could revive the weak-jobs case; a hot core print may reprice the dollar, Treasury yields, BTC and ETH.