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The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.7%. The 10-year yield once surged to 5.365%, the highest since 2002. At the same time, Bitcoin only dropped 5%. In the past, a single negative factor could cause a drop of over 10%, but this time multiple negative factors hit together, and it barely moved. This is unusual. First, let's clearly see what is weighing on the market. What does a 10-year US Treasury yield of 5.365% mean? It's the highest since April 2002. Back then, the US inflation rate was only 1.6%, now it is 3.4%. You have to accept a lower return than 20 years ago while bearing higher inflation risk. This is not just a number; it is a wall. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has been pushed to a 20-year extreme. Even more severe are the rate hike expectations. Waller cited futures data: the market prices an 85% probability of at least one rate hike by December, and nearly 80% probability of at least two hikes by March 2027. This is not noise. This is mid-term macro pricing. But BTC only dropped 5%. Jasonleo is right—the most noteworthy aspect of this correction is not the drop itself, but "why it only dropped this much." Multiple negative factors bombarding simultaneously: soaring US Treasury yields, rising rate hike expectations, oil prices rebounding, inflation pressures rising. Previously, any one of these could crash BTC by over 10%. This time, all combined, yet the price didn’t even break key levels. His judgment is: after the negative factors are fully priced in, selling pressure naturally weakens. When everyone knows what the negatives are and has priced them in advance, there is no new selling when the negatives materialize. This is not luck. This is a change in market structure. Let's rewind to the $58,000 bottom. On June 30, 2026, BTC dropped to about $59,000, a retracement of over 53% from the all-time high. Grayscale research head Zach Pandl pointed out then that the bottom might have formed at $58,000, reasoning that "the despair accompanying the decline was mild, and the price stopped falling despite adverse news." The current structure is very similar. But there is a key difference— Back then, it was the end of a bear market with "no one believing." Now, it is a strong trend framework with "no one selling." At $58,000, after all negatives were out, a trend reversal was completed. Now, the same logic is replaying, but the market stands in a stronger position. Jasonleo set $79,000 as a position reduction observation point, and if the daily close breaks below $78,000, exit all positions. This discipline itself is fine. But what I want to say is: what if $79,000 is not broken? Interest rates are gravity. But BTC has proven it can fly in a high-gravity environment. The real test is never how high rates are. It is whether the market has fully digested them. When everyone knows US Treasury yields at 5.7%, an 85% priced-in rate hike, and 3.7% inflation, these numbers no longer cause panic. They become consensus. And consensus is never the best trading opponent. $BTC $ETH $CL #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息