
东篱闲云
东篱闲云
2020年入圈,本金1650u起步,实盘已超过百倍收益 主要做右侧交易,时不时分享交易经验和心得 按照计划,下一轮周期可到A8
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$ETH trading volume has shrunk to what, just staying flat like this for a long time, feels like a big wave is coming soon

$ETH has formed a head; a drop below 1852 can be shorted

#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
I believe 99% of people don't know what U.S. Treasuries are or how Treasury yields impact the economy, so I think it's necessary to give a simple explanation:
* U.S. Treasuries mean you lend money to the U.S. government, which pays interest regularly and returns the principal at maturity.
* So why does the bond price fall when Treasury yields rise?
* Here's a simple example. Suppose you hold an old U.S. Treasury bond worth $1,000 that pays $40 interest annually, equivalent to 4%. Later, the U.S. government issues new bonds paying $50 annually, equivalent to 5%. Naturally, no one wants to pay $1,000 for your old bond that only pays $40. You have to sell the old bond at a discount. When the bond price drops, the buyer's actual yield rises, gradually approaching the level of newly issued bonds in the market.
* As of July 31, the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 2, 5, 10, and 30 years rose approximately to:
2 years: 4.28%
5 years: 4.45%
10 years: 4.75%
30 years: 5.27%
* What do the different maturities signify?
2 years: The market's vote on the Fed's next move.
5 years: The market's judgment on the next economic cycle.
10 years: The 10-year Treasury is one of the most important interest rate benchmarks in the global financial market. U.S. mortgages, corporate loans, corporate bonds, and many stock valuations are directly or indirectly influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. So the 10-year Treasury can be understood as the baseline price for global capital.
30 years: The price at which the market is willing to lend money to the U.S. for 30 years. It reflects long-term inflation, fiscal pressure, and time risk.
* So this new high in yields indicates the market's concerns go beyond whether the Fed will raise rates in the short term. If I am to lend money to the U.S. for 30 years, a return of about 4% is no longer enough; I need at least over 5% to compensate for decades of inflation and uncertainty.
What are the impacts of this?
① Those holding long-term bonds may face significant unrealized losses.
② U.S. stock valuations will come under pressure.
③ Mortgage rates and corporate financing may remain high.
④ The U.S. government's interest burden will gradually increase.
* To summarize: the rise in the 30-year Treasury yield means global capital is repricing the U.S.'s long-term borrowing. The real focus going forward is not whether the yield briefly hits 5.27%, but whether the 30-year yield can fall back below 5%. If long-term Treasury yields stay above 5% for a prolonged period, the impact will extend beyond bonds to U.S. mortgages, corporate financing, stock valuations, government finances, and the pricing system of all global assets.
Don't miss this opportunity for $LINK

Recently, $HYPE trading volume has been sluggish. Is there a chance it could return to 45 so I can make a move? 🙏🏻

