From the numbers, this SpaceX earnings report is flawless. But the stock price fell more than 6% after hours. The problem lies in two areas. One is the massive cash burn, with quarterly capital expenditures reaching 18.37 billion, more than six times that of the same period last year, of which 15.8 billion was invested in AI infrastructure. The market now reacts nervously at the words "AI capital expenditure," especially with the shadow of semiconductor crashes in the first half of the year still lingering. The other is that on August 6 tomorrow, 911.5 million shares will be unlocked. Currently, SpaceX has only about 640 million freely tradable shares, and the unlocking scale is nearly twice the circulating shares, corresponding to a market value of over 100 billion dollars. What does this mean? It means the amount of SpaceX stock available for trading on the market will suddenly nearly double. The short position has already piled up to 24.6 billion dollars, accounting for about 34% of the circulating shares, even larger than Tesla's short position. So the current situation is—the earnings numbers are indeed impressive, but there could be a sell-off worth hundreds of billions tomorrow. My own judgment is that the quality of the earnings report itself is solid. Starlink's profitability is being validated, the AI business is reducing losses faster than expected, and the revenue growth rate is top-tier in any industry. But the unlocking is a real supply shock, and selling pressure will definitely exist in the short term. The key points to watch are: first, whether the trading volume within three days after unlocking can absorb the sell-off. If it can, it means institutions agree on this price, and this level might be the bottom area. Second, if the stock price dips due to unlocking, whether long-term funds are willing to come in and buy. My current attitude is to wait and watch, not to act. Wait for the unlocking to happen and the direction to become clear. There's no rush for one or two days; SpaceX is not going bankrupt tomorrow. $SPCX #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 $NVDA $BTC

MicroStrategy sold coins again. 1,638 coins at an average price of $63,957, nearly $12,000 below the cost line of $75,419. A single transaction book loss of $19 million. The last sale was in early July, 3,588 coins sold for $216 million; this time the scale is half as much, but the loss is greater. The key point is that this time they sold below the cost line, marking the first time selling at a loss. First, let's talk about where the money went—it was used to pay preferred stock dividends. A 12% annualized dividend that must be paid. This is different from previous understanding; the market previously assumed MicroStrategy was a buy-only, never-sell long holder, but now that assumption is broken. Moreover, they sold twice within six weeks, totaling over 5,200 coins, indicating they really need cash to maintain financial operations, not just a one-off event. Next, looking at the actual market impact, $104 million is a very small portion of Bitcoin's daily trading volume and can be absorbed in a day. But the truly interesting part is the psychological impact: even the largest holder has to realize losses to liquidate. Once this narrative spreads, it may shake some retail investors. Now, the most important point to watch. MicroStrategy itself said that the condition to start buying coins again is for the preferred stock price to return near the issue price. Currently, it is about 10% short. What does this mean? The preferred stock market does not recognize this valuation; investors are trading at a discount, indicating the market's pricing of their credit risk is rising. If the 10% gap cannot be closed, they can only continue selling, not buying. If it can be closed, MicroStrategy will become a buyer again. So watching how much they sell is not very meaningful; watching when the preferred stock discount narrows is the key. This sale itself is not a huge negative, but what is truly worth noting is that MicroStrategy has entered a new phase, shifting from buy-only to both buying and selling. Their market impact method has changed; their purchasing power is tied to the preferred stock market, and before credit repair, they can only be sellers. When the preferred stock discount returns near the issue price, that will be a signal of market confidence recovery. $MSTR $BTC $STRC #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩